Elon Musk

We track Musk’s Optimus forecasts alongside Tesla’s dated written disclosures. A proposed factory, actual output, internal use and a delivered product are recorded as distinct milestones.

A timeline of the argument

1. Jan 22, 2026

   Optimus · Forecast. At Davos, Musk anticipated public sales by the end of 2027. A conditional forecast, without a binding retail delivery date in this statement. World Economic Forum · Event organizerEvidence through Jan 22, 2026. Attribution checked; outcome not independently verified by RoboAngle.

2. Jan 28, 2026

   Optimus Gen 3 · Announced plan. Tesla planned production before the end of 2026 and eventual capacity of one million robots a year. Eventual line capacity is neither 2026 output nor robots delivered to customers. Tesla · SupplierEvidence through Jan 28, 2026. Attribution checked; outcome not independently verified by RoboAngle.

3. Jul 22, 2026

   Optimus · Reported result. Tesla reported Model S/X line decommissioning and installation of its first Optimus lines; initial builds were earmarked for development and training-data collection. The July account does not establish sustained productive internal use or external customer deliveries. Later changes need later evidence. Tesla · SupplierEvidence through Jul 22, 2026. Attribution checked; outcome not independently verified by RoboAngle.

4. Oct 21, 2026

   Optimus · Reported result. Tesla reported production-quality builds at Fremont; California was in early ramp and Texas remained under construction. Supplier report, not independently verified customer operation. Completed-unit count and external deliveries remain unknown in this record. Tesla · Company filingEvidence through Oct 21, 2026. Attribution checked; outcome not independently verified by RoboAngle.